Thursday 23 February 2023

The Third Self: Design Innovations’ Next Muse

In 2001, our idea of The 3rd Self a precursor to the next almost 20yrs of efforts in artificial intelligence systems began. The idea, connected to the first BBS, called a Computerized Bulletin Board System (CBBS) in 1978 was where real people created useful avatars of themselves via something as simple as a username and where, possibly, our Second Self was born. It was that 2nd Self ( all the data we started generating for our user name(s) and that was connected daily and directly to us ) which was a drop in the ocean of the wave that was to come next.


 

Fast forward to 2023 and now, with widely accessible Ai ( the image for this article came from just asking for an image of ” the third self ” from a Generative Ai image creation system ) not to mention the almost ” sentient ” conversational Ai systems that are at the ready on just about any device imaginable. More we are interacting with said systems through beta version of @Amazon’s Alexa like voice interfaces which are being brought online everyday. Systems like @Microsoft’s Bing and @Google’s Bard not to mention @Facebook Meta’s BlenderBot are only the begging of western nation capabilities and full system functionalities  that chat openly with humans and about any topic imaginable ( in what seems like the Turing Test being beaten ) but which can also, in some cases, fully augment the design and engineering capabilities that we all struggle with every day – the infinitely complex time consuming tasks that we spend our days on. With such systems means the world has radically changed. Almost overnight. Almost.

We have jumped ( with the advent of readily accessible and tremendously powerful Ai systems available and at NO costs to users at this point ) from a clunky 8088 PC experience to a Macintosh world, a ” smart ” cell phone to the iPhone 1, seemingly, in the blink of an eye. A 70yr blink to be safe to say. With additional and almost incomprehensible capabilities of such Ai systems that can ” write a @WhatsApp message to my sister about options for vegetarian dishes made with pumpkin ” to ” create me an dynamic trading day trading algorithm based on the following criteria…. ” to ” imagine a series of high gloss black chairs based on the shape of a @Steinway&Sons Grand Piano ” coming online every second, it seems we are most likely days away from each and every person having their own, self aware ( and created from our own individual data: eg. your tweet from yesterday, a Facebook post from last week, An Instagram photo from last month, etc., ) being right at your fingertip. It’s been in the labs for years. Now it’s about to be in your pocket. It will be in your wireless earbuds. It will soon be in your fully integrated AR/VR headsets and then embedded into your in-eye Ar/Vr contact lenses not even 20yrs away: they are fully working and in clinical human trials now as we speak.

Shortly, you will be able to have yourself speak directly to you if you wish, or with all your knowledge and data & experiences, have Leonardo Da Vinci speak to you in his voice. Or do the same, with all his experiences and yours combined. Or just speak to you with his alone. As our Third Selves have always been available to us, we may just never have been able to talk directly to it. We may have never been fully aware of it yet. But we will be. We will be.

Apple’s new and very wearable Ar/Vr headsets are due out this year, 2023, 16 years after iPhone 1 was launched on Jan 2007 and the typical, radical, 20yr technological shift is right on track. And, with this new technology, new interfaces will be needed. The next wave of end user consumer electronics and technologies are about to be a fully integrated digital extension of ourselves who we talk to, work with, have fun with and which will, most likely, outlive us for others to also interact with when we are gone. Our inaugural Third Self, our own, personal 3rd selves, for each and every one of us to interact with is just a monthly subscription model away, and we, as curious humans, won’t be able to resist. A fully new frontier is about pop into existence  where we will boldly go where ( humanity ) has not gone before.

Did this radical and truly disruptive design ( and as tautological overkill, this disruptive innovation ) 3rd Self just come our of no where? From a eureka moment? Only in it’s idea and naming, but certainly with more than 70yrs of giant’s shoulders to stand on and where in 2015, and with substantial funding, @OpenAi was founded in San Francisco by 6 lead investors collectively to the tune of $1B in capital which has gotten OpenAi to where it is in 2023 – giving us the tools necessary to launch our 3rd Self for each of us. The capabilities necessary to bring our Third Self into being, a 3rd persona ( for a user and by a user with each of our past interactions intact and for any and all electronic devices that we have touched ) means a completely new way of thinking, acting, working, and living. Are we ready for such design power at all our fingertips ? Can we even begin to ” … Think About Our Different Styles of Thinking ? ” and how our 3rd Selves will be created by and for us ? In the above article ( https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/16/how-should-we-think-about-our-different-styles-of-thinking ) by @joshuarothman asks all the right questions: do we even know what to do with such power ? And, what does this mean for how our new selves, our Third Selves, who interface directly with us daily will help us design and build the products and services that come from our extra minds that we are each just about ready to bring online at the push of a button ?

With such a radical shift having seismically hit us all ( there isn’t hardly anyone who hasn’t heard of GTP3 and OpenAi by now ) how does such a groundbreaking ( and lengthy 2015-2023 or 8yr journey and again, based on at least 8 previous years before 2015 of rapid technological efforts: government backed education and R&D commercialization efforts ) emerge when more recently the notion that a muse cannot just misalign multiple methods randomly? A muse does not just show up. Not like the muse ( the technology ) of the 3rd Self. This begs us to understand that innovation is not just about seeing the farthest or even the most and/or as rapidly as possible ( that is the department of wild winds ) rather it’s the way the most possibilities are connected in a specifically cohesive alternative way for useful outcomes to coalesce and emerge. For code to be written for specific problem solving to take place. For design typologies to emerge. For architectural systems to come in to being and thus products to be produced from all of the above.

We are at a similar cross roads like the 1st days of the 1st web browser, Mosaic, being launched publicly in Jan 1993 with today’s 1st glimpses of the coming AGI ( Artificial General Intelligence ) breakthrough innovations happening right before our eyes.

Our 3rd Selves are right around the corner.
Our Third Self is just about to be born

 

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Tuesday 31 January 2023

Tacit Design Drives Specific Science

When can design inquiry provide a structured approach for scientists ? Bringing design thinking into their work and enhancing their ability to create innovative products, design inquiry can breeds ( and possibly subconsciously ) incredible new product development process in raw science investigators. More where organizations can leverage the benefits of tacit knowledge and drive innovation breakthroughs can even be more plentiful. What then becomes particularly interesting is when Design and design Thinking have become increasingly encouraging in the scientific effort and as described in "Design Enquiry: Tacit Knowledge and Invention in Science" where the role of tacit knowledge and design thinking emerges via tacit efforts to incorporate skills, experiences, and know-how that are often difficult to articulate and transfer to others in the scientific community but where this type of knowledge is crucial to leading to more innovative solutions in the long run.


This is further imagined and investigated via the exploration of the relationship between tacit knowledge and design thinking in the context of new product development where Tacit knowledge as skills, know-how, and experience that are difficult to articulate and transfer to others can create a pathway for tacit knowledge to be critical and which can lead to more innovative solutions if interacted with via sometimes playful and non linear goal oriented exercises later becoming linear and specific. In fact, design thinking and its counterpart capabilities when integrated into scientific research and development efforts easily leverage and outweigh the benefits of tacit knowledge transfer only.

The efforts of the design mentality as a structured approach to incorporating design thinking into the new product development process, allows Design inquiry to provides a semi-structured method for scientists to integrate and enhancing imagination thus providing scientists and other experts with new perspectives, in for example, recent case studies where designers have been able to collaborate with scientists and make significant contributions to their research such as helping researchers understand the problem of differentiating between tube connections used to deliver medication in hospitals. When designers developed prototypes that allowed early evaluation of avant-garde solutions, this eventually led to the development of international standards for this area. In another example, graphic designers working on scientific data representation helped researchers identify new patterns in their data, leading to new clinical applications of the research. The involvement of designers in these projects has also highlighted the importance of teamwork and recognizing the expertise of all partners involved when in the beginning there was no implicit reason to even do so.


 

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Friday 30 December 2022

History's Heartbeat of Innovation Influence. Next Up: AI

With the advent of.....but X isn't an advent as AI's timing is exactly on-cycle!

iGNITIATE - History's Heartbeat of Innovation Influence. Next Up: AI

By the books ( and by " the math " where the presence of large gravitational forces / shifts warble space time ) so to is it time for another massive warping / evolution to our technological advancement, and it's AI, now making that shift but unlike the web and mobile devices that seem like the horse and buggy in the wake of AI systems easily accessible to designers and engineers. Again, by the math and the initial development of the 1st web browsers and web systems by Tim Burners-Lee at CERN in pre 1991, we saw the 1st general user web interfaces with The Mosaic web browsers about 4yrs later in January 1993. A more formal and very well funded Netscape Navigator firm and it's Initial release date of December 1994 brought the big money / " the 500lb  gorilla " of Microsoft buying a web browser company and then with Microsoft IE in June 1998 ( after a 4yr window ) overtaking Netscape's market dominance and plainly visible in the history of that advancement: web browsing for everyone and client server technology being embedded into everything.
 
With the very first GPT or GPT-1 introduced in June 2018 ( just like Tim Berners-Lee's WWW )  by Dec 2022 and with ChatGTP fully online ( with the planned GTP-4 launch actually ready for 2022 ) the roughly 4yr advancement / evolutionary cycle becomes visible again. This time, with the generally outrageous capabilities that seem almost plug and play into any existing system the GTP-esque series of technologies shows how radical and society changing a technological advancement can be and where it has been able to be adopted so quickly. The capability of code repositories accessible on the fly for auto compilation and usage by any system that can interface with such code repositories means that the GTP-esque capabilities are growing and expanding as fast as developers can prototype possibilities. Image creation with Dall-E, MidJourney, Stable Diffusion, all the way to 3D modeling ( then onto mesh object creation ) from text prompt capabilities and even tensor based holographic imaging systems that can run directly on now affordable mobile phones, the ramifications of what this means for design and engineering could be measured to show a full order of magnitude leap in comparison to web, mobile, etc., technological advancements of the past. And this, was all, roughly, just in 2022.
 

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Wednesday 30 November 2022

Breaking Innovation Boundaries: Being Late Often Wins

The early ( design ) bird gets the ( innovation ) worm so the saying goes, but what about when scarcity isn’t the case?

 


The reality behind the design and innovation game can come from two different view points when ” success ” factors are evaluated in terms of 1st ever ( and as often supported by patents and trademarks ) and scale ( as often supported by easy access to capital ) focuses and each are very different. The value is then who can get innovation X approved by as many world government patent offices ( and at a substantial cost so to protect said innovation ) vs who can get innovation X into the hands of as many people as humanly possible – and now with Ai via the use of non-human hands. Some may even say that this is a who has deeper minds and/or deeper pockets situation. Both interestingly are correct.

In research completed with an international cast of practicing innovation experts from ” Innovation in International Markets “ we see some of the most startling notations regarding the clear idea that scarcity ( often the entire driving factor of economics ) is not the same for innovation or even invention. The ” race ” to be first ( and thus publish – thus securing copyright and possibly trademark rights ) has been usurped by the internet and internet search engines plus the requirements to disclose all key operating functionalities for patent assignment ( and the incredible costs to secure such legal protections ) is often a game of cat and mouse. It’s research & design & development + patenting vs just do it ( with possibly the same costs as the above ) and with said profits ( thus being a market leader for a specific period of time ) then re-investing, doubling, tripling, or putting even more “down” into said innovation effort with the explicit hope that a larger, after the fact, late entrant, does not just take over. Marketing it seems often slices and dices any innovation effort which can’t afford to defend against the above and especially with today’s Ai based, auto-commenting, auto-posting, and auto-interaction social media systems.

What can then be done? How is riding a wave that is already in motion of more interest then finding waves in the 1st place to firms on the cutting edge of “new” and when design is the differentiating factor ? The reality is that it all comes down to access to users and the ability to easily reach them. In the end, the more difficult it is to reach new users, to work with them to try and then adapt to a demand that is in the process of being created then becomes the underlying factor for success and the innovation game then becomes the largest fish gambit. Information processing from a state, national and international level dictates ” success ” far faster than capital or even ideas. Breakthroughs then often come down to who can reach more, the fastest and easiest. This was not the case in the pre-internet years past, and will most likely be the case in the post-common use everyday robots future we are rapidly innovating towards.

 

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Tuesday 18 October 2022

Making Innovation Happen Means Making Creativity Matter

Innovation does not just happen once R&D works, once design matters, rather, it the glue that connects it all to entrepreneurial/intrapreneurial efforts for real usability.

With over 600 responses from +70 CEO’s & COO’s; +400 VP’s with P&L responsibilities; each with +13yrs experience in their roles, and where their firm’s average sales were in the $4.1B range ( adjusted to 2022 currency rates ) one of the overwhelming success factors in the ability to use creativity to enhance and increase the applicability of innovation and rule breaking efforts within firms was the clear connection that it was not age, position or experience level that mattered. With explicit details and solid backing as identified in Making Innovation Happen we see, surprisingly it is a firm’s overall efforts towards failure and learning that matter and not just within the R&D and design efforts themselves that makes for breakthroughs to happen and keep happening leading to overwhelming organizational success.

Firms that made way for individual and group based ( non R&D centric ) innovation and creativity based exploration, experimentation, training and testing were able to see an overwhelmingly significant increase in the adoption of said efforts, and, in the firms ranking highest on individual and organizational creativity and innovation. The undeniable factor uncovered is that when individuals with high levels of direct contact and autonomous interface with end users come into contact with problems and needs that can be ” tweaked ” to accommodate the capabilities of specific R&D based efforts, these are the organizations that have the highest levels of innovation and creativity success because those organizations feel comfortable with the risks of ” tweeks ” leading to high levels of usage. More, these organizations have the highest level of training and failure acceptance vs. firms who don’t reward such efforts and where these firms ” reap greater benefits from [ recruited ] individual employees who are innately creative


 

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