History's Heartbeat of Innovation Influence. Next Up: AI

With the advent of.....but X isn't an advent as AI's timing is exactly on-cycle!

By the books ( and by " the math " where the presence of large gravitational forces / shifts warble space time ) so to is it time for another massive warping / evolution to our technological advancement, and it's AI, now making that shift but unlike the web and mobile devices that seem like the horse and buggy in the wake of AI systems easily accessible to designers and engineers. Again, by the math and the initial development of the 1st web browsers and web systems by Tim Burners-Lee at CERN in pre 1991, we saw the 1st general user web interfaces with The Mosaic web browsers about 4yrs later in January 1993. A more formal and very well funded Netscape Navigator firm and it's Initial release date of December 1994 brought the big money / " the 500lb  gorilla " of Microsoft buying a web browser company and then with Microsoft IE in June 1998 ( after a 4yr window ) overtaking Netscape's market dominance and plainly visible in the history of that advancement: web browsing for everyone and client server technology being embedded into everything.

 

With the very first GPT or GPT-1 introduced in June 2018 ( just like Tim Berners-Lee's WWW )  by Dec 2022 and with ChatGTP fully online ( with the planned GTP-4 launch actually ready for 2022 ) the roughly 4yr advancement / evolutionary cycle becomes visible again. This time, with the generally outrageous capabilities that seem almost plug and play into any existing system the GTP-esque series of technologies shows how radical and society changing a technological advancement can be and where it has been able to be adopted so quickly. The capability of code repositories accessible on the fly for auto compilation and usage by any system that can interface with such code repositories means that the GTP-esque capabilities are growing and expanding as fast as developers can prototype possibilities. Image creation with Dall-E, MidJourney, Stable Diffusion, all the way to 3D modeling ( then onto mesh object creation ) from text prompt capabilities and even tensor based holographic imaging systems that can run directly on now affordable mobile phones, the ramifications of what this means for design and engineering could be measured to show a full order of magnitude leap in comparison to web, mobile, etc., technological advancements of the past. And this, was all, roughly, just in 2022.

 

                    

   

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Breaking Innovation Boundaries: Being Late Often Wins

The early ( design ) bird gets the ( innovation ) worm so the saying goes, but what about when scarcity isn’t the case?

 

The reality behind the design and innovation game can come from two different view points when ” success ” factors are evaluated in terms of 1st ever ( and as often supported by patents and trademarks ) and scale ( as often supported by easy access to capital ) focuses and each are very different. The value is then who can get innovation X approved by as many world government patent offices ( and at a substantial cost so to protect said innovation ) vs who can get innovation X into the hands of as many people as humanly possible – and now with Ai via the use of non-human hands. Some may even say that this is a who has deeper minds and/or deeper pockets situation. Both interestingly are correct.

In research completed with an international cast of practicing innovation experts from ” Innovation in International Markets “ we see some of the most startling notations regarding the clear idea that scarcity ( often the entire driving factor of economics ) is not the same for innovation or even invention. The ” race ” to be first ( and thus publish – thus securing copyright and possibly trademark rights ) has been usurped by the internet and internet search engines plus the requirements to disclose all key operating functionalities for patent assignment ( and the incredible costs to secure such legal protections ) is often a game of cat and mouse. It’s research & design & development + patenting vs just do it ( with possibly the same costs as the above ) and with said profits ( thus being a market leader for a specific period of time ) then re-investing, doubling, tripling, or putting even more “down” into said innovation effort with the explicit hope that a larger, after the fact, late entrant, does not just take over. Marketing it seems often slices and dices any innovation effort which can’t afford to defend against the above and especially with today’s Ai based, auto-commenting, auto-posting, and auto-interaction social media systems.

What can then be done? How is riding a wave that is already in motion of more interest then finding waves in the 1st place to firms on the cutting edge of “new” and when design is the differentiating factor ? The reality is that it all comes down to access to users and the ability to easily reach them. In the end, the more difficult it is to reach new users, to work with them to try and then adapt to a demand that is in the process of being created then becomes the underlying factor for success and the innovation game then becomes the largest fish gambit. Information processing from a state, national and international level dictates ” success ” far faster than capital or even ideas. Breakthroughs then often come down to who can reach more, the fastest and easiest. This was not the case in the pre-internet years past, and will most likely be the case in the post-common use everyday robots future we are rapidly innovating towards.

 

                    

   

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Making Innovation Happen Means Making Creativity Matter

Innovation does not just happen once R&D works, once design matters, rather, it the glue that connects it all to entrepreneurial/intrapreneurial efforts for real usability.

With over 600 responses from +70 CEO’s & COO’s; +400 VP’s with P&L responsibilities; each with +13yrs experience in their roles, and where their firm’s average sales were in the $4.1B range ( adjusted to 2022 currency rates ) one of the overwhelming success factors in the ability to use creativity to enhance and increase the applicability of innovation and rule breaking efforts within firms was the clear connection that it was not age, position or experience level that mattered. With explicit details and solid backing as identified in Making Innovation Happen we see, surprisingly it is a firm’s overall efforts towards failure and learning that matter and not just within the R&D and design efforts themselves that makes for breakthroughs to happen and keep happening leading to overwhelming organizational success.

Firms that made way for individual and group based ( non R&D centric ) innovation and creativity based exploration, experimentation, training and testing were able to see an overwhelmingly significant increase in the adoption of said efforts, and, in the firms ranking highest on individual and organizational creativity and innovation. The undeniable factor uncovered is that when individuals with high levels of direct contact and autonomous interface with end users come into contact with problems and needs that can be ” tweaked ” to accommodate the capabilities of specific R&D based efforts, these are the organizations that have the highest levels of innovation and creativity success because those organizations feel comfortable with the risks of ” tweeks ” leading to high levels of usage. More, these organizations have the highest level of training and failure acceptance vs. firms who don’t reward such efforts and where these firms ” reap greater benefits from [ recruited ] individual employees who are innately creative

 

                    

   

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iGNITIATE - Design Matters, And Customers Can’t Be Invented Who Don’t Exist. But McKinsey is Wron

" The Best Way To Predict The Future Is To Invent It " - Alan Kay: Xerox PARC Labs. And, the only issue: how far into the future can you go vs. what changes on the trip back to the present.

Often in the race to create a usable and yet unclear future, and for those who practice innovation as a way to create a firm's/military's/government's/lab's effectiveness for end users that such organizations serve, the factor of how far afield investigations/campaigns/interactions/experimentation can go & how hard the process is of retrofitting what has been born out of such efforts, to present day is the reality that is often faced. The value of creating future incrementalism is in fact, in the sustainability of connecting what already is, and to what will be,  via advanced design. After all, for the most part, programs written even in the earliest days of Microsoft DOS can still be run on brand new and incredibly advanced present day PC operating systems. It's designed that way.

With conversations surrounding the idea that, design matters, but customers can't be invented who don’t exist, in Why Corporate America Broke Up With Design, the reality is that this idea has sometimes been the bane of design in it's most raw R&D focused effort: what will be, comes from the impossible with just one or two end users after the inventive process is completed. Thus the statement that design matters, but... is not a truism. What has not even been conceived is sometimes the realm of invention, and yet, design, the more specific form of imagining and articulating, often comes far before the science or aesthetics of a specific focus is even understood. By 2022, this machination of design has become a de facto reality in boardrooms, organizational meetings and any and all manner of discussions on how more fully usable efforts bring value to all involved.

In the detailed How Integrating Design Impacts Company Performance and the ever well quoted McKinsey  Business Value Of Design plus their Redesigning The Design Department work, it's very clear to see that the consistent effort and realization is that while the performance factors of design lead organizations, of design centric firms and deign lead government and military organizations brings significant value to all involved, the nature of such efforts that an articulated X, is the driving factor of a future of exactly what will be and what will be built. This future to be built is how bridges, designed, architected and constructed, a future ( from advanced R&D years in the future ) is often quite perfect and then being delivered shows the best possible outcomes even when customers ( that do evolve and use such artifacts ) are a " need " un-articulated to begin with. After all, a powerful design effort, the Eames Lounge Chair and Ottoman by Herman Miller began from a military contract to build lightweight transportable structures and The Ghost Chair by Kartell never had customers in the beginning, just a new machine perfected and capable of producing large injection molded plastics objects. Customers ( undefined ) needed to use it ( the machines ) but not the legendary design icons born from it. Now there are both: customers and innovations born from the void of a future defined by design.

 

                    

   

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Determining Design Destiny = Defense + Disruption

Often with advanced R&D, Defense + Disruption go hand in hand with assuring a design effort destine for success. But how ?

Naturally the capability of sustainability from incumbent design, engineering, manufacturing and distribution efforts depends on the tight integration of all components of an often disperse series of players whose primary mission is the smooth delivery of functionality and value to the largest group of users - that organizations customers. However, the constant pace of rapid integration and re-integration of new possible functionalities typologies and research into alternative methods to increase speed and efficiency is often the largest area of effort of said organizations. However, it is when a combination of defense and disruption go hand in hand, and where specific design focuses are brought to bear to create additional value past that of pure efficiency.

In Incumbent Defense Strategies Against New Product Entry a work that defines several cornerstones of the way that design elasticity can directly impact a new product developments success and based squarely on the economics of production and also where this can be applied to ( in some respects ) the evolution of design typologies. It then can be said that design is equal in many ways to the standard economic engines and tools used to stabilize or de-stabilize an innovation effort through, of all things, usability either in terms of ease of use, or even aesthetics.

With this then we have the capability to re-define the value of the deign process and decoupled from the standard sales and marketing mix analysis pervasive in the time of the writing of this analysis. This is further seen within the context of the coming AI revolution in the same way that the internet influenced the way that end users interacted with products and services that previously had little if any connectivity or interconnectivity between them. We then see the true power of designs end capabilities and the way that it directly and with specific force can create an immediate value for the designer / design team and end users where the integration and use of convergence allows superior, intellectual property protected products to succeed in the real world.

 

                    

   

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