Does Ai Enabled Design Re-Imaginations Mean Instant Innovation ?

Re-Imaginations ( Ai or not ) drive ROI when Innovation is Integrated. Here's how....

When the nature of breakthroughs is a direct function of measurable firm impact, a key variable of patience is often overlooked but more specifically often not factored into what we might call the bamboo delta - the time difference between the start of an unknown internal growth cycle necessary before a massive and overwhelming growth stage takes place similar to the way bamboo seems to be completely dormant and then grows at such a radical pace it could be considered to the uninitiated other worldly, in many cases with bamboo shoots growing at 5.5 inches per hour or almost 1mm every 90 seconds.

 Where typical Innovation efforts ( often realistically defined at NPD or New Product Development work ) look to have an output measure of dynamic technological capabilities, when firms undertaking either radical product innovation, radical process innovation, or both and are often measured against domestic patent applications only ( but not necessarily being granted / assignment said patents ) or as marked by industry awards ( in the case of design and manufacturing awards ) a specific form of balance can be missed: the re-interpretation / re-imagination of internal firm capability to in fact, push out ( and deliver utility ) before the acceptance of said " innovation " becomes known. But how?

Via a focus on Dynamic capabilities to mean the collective capacities to learn and adapt ( within the firm ) with the help of dynamic competencies ( i.e., individuals' abilities to learn and solve problems where a system of stated or unstated champions inside an organization assist with this effort is grown and supported ) is where innovation aggressive firms are able to be "visionary" enough to perceive opportunities which necessitate investment in knowledge-intensive strategies through the R&D process, and which ( when focused properly ) allow for the development of knowledge and investigation internally that is also absorbed from the outside so that when it comes time for incredible & rapid growth the firm / organization / individuals are ready for that zeitgeist to begin.

Simultaneously making sure that employees who are capable of re-designing, using, applying, re-configuring and producing for firm's products and technologies ( when they are ready ) are also the ones that often take leadership stakes in said radical efforts before a firm approves them. Oddly where this does not seem to be year or country dependent, and as detailed in Competencies, Innovation And Profitability Of Firms we can see how the exact definition of Innovation ( a radical breaking from an accepted inter or intra firm / organizational norm ) can directly impact firm performance if an only if firms are prepared from a sub-culture perspective to allow such radical growth to take place.

We see this even more specifically where the effectiveness of process innovators is more affected by a firms / organizations influence ( the more influence that a firm or organization has the more easily they find value in new and interesting ways of working with their clients and the design process ) where physical ( and in some cases digital ) product intensive innovation means that research skills ( including end user focused feedback and iterative manufacturing efforts ) are key factors to the optimization necessary for sustained radical efforts. This is further seen in the most recent Ai enabled design re-imagination capabilities where new functionalities and empowerment do not mean instant innovation ( and by the exact definition of innovation ) however where new Ai capabilities ( and especially due to the nature of physical iterative manufacturing ) means the digital realm continues to be turbocharged thus the nature of making radical breakthroughs is happening at an even more accelerated pace.

 

                    

   

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With Just Cardboard, Creative Convergences Can Coalesce

When disperse ideas need to be made real, it's the time for creative convergence, but how? Here's one of many ways.

In the example of " the card board computer " of Ehn and Kyng a matchbox represented a mouse, a cardboard box was a laser printer and a piece of paper taped to the wall was a computer screen and as detailed in Cardboard Computers: Mocking-it-up or Hands-on the Future and which created rapid creation, discussion, modification and conclusions took place ( and separate from an empathy focused, design thinking system ) which in many cases does not allow for almost instant movement from possible thought to " workable " futures but rather where consensus can leads.

A constantly evolving ( and in the hands of skilled designers ) mechanism to increase discussion and nonlinear generativeness might mean conversational systems with interdependent and addressable ( by text or voice or other input ) toolsets ( Ai ) means new integrated mechanisms ( in the same way the T-Splines system connected points on a 3D modeling systems curves for advanced surface manipulation ) will allow for conceptual idea stretching and pulling to take place and in the very near future. In this way designer’s contribution[s] ( or via an Ai augmented system) can challenge how scientist[s] with tacit and explicit capability can move research forward to where designers have an ability to work with and can re-frame representations of what might be possible thus providing ( and as seen in Design Inquiry Tacit Knowledge and Invention ) a new and valuable toolset for change is possible.

The coming ( but realistically here already ) Ai enabled environments for not only designers ( but soon to be engineers and finance professionals ) means that the ways that we investigate, pre-test and mock-up ( read work with that which isn't even real yet ) systems and possibilities is rapidly evolving at an incredible pace. Now the only question is how fast can designers, engineers and finance professionals adopt these systems in order to usher in the next generations of products and services which have yet to be captured.

 

                    

   

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Fluidity & Functionality - Syncing Skunkworks Singularities

When pursuing " the impossible " fluidity is the key to breaking the barriers of " it can't be done " Here's how.

With the notion of what we are calling ' design serendipity ' we see the clear reality of doing the impossible means addressing the direct function of non-linear environmental factors: timing. In this, when what " can't be done " is clearly balanced against environmental forces, greater synergies from skunkworks outputs and artifacts of multiple ( and possibly initially unconnected ) Skunkworks efforts means later, manufacturing & production innovations can in fact take place. This is also where design itself directly effects specific organizational changes and without organizational changes, it's highly unlikely that breakthrough innovations make it: simply if you can't see what might be possible and balanced against acceptable realities and time-frames then success will not come easily.

We can see this readily where design methods can be a direct catalyst of change, and through visualization and tangible artifacts, when design leads first to the destabilization of habits, and where when designers have the potential to intervene and can inspire a shift in systems through future restabilization as the challenges caused by science-driven linear thinking pushes against a non-linear process of working and " possibles " and this is the heart and soul of where skunkworks efforts take hold. Think of the movie " Ready Player One " and the oncoming effects of AR, & VR systems when projected and timed properly with user acceptance more and more usability becomes effortless.

Articulated in a way that details the nuances of how this is accomplished and also the way to implement this in the real world, we see glimpses of how innovation and combined skunkworks models applies to high energy plasma physics and the mechanical design efforts in this field in works such as  An Overview of Tokamak Alternatives in the US Fusion Program with the Aim of Fostering Concept Innovation and the writing of Bijl-Brouwer where the ideas of transdisciplinary design make it more clear: possibilities are able to be utilized when non-standard ways of thinking are allowed to be productized and implemented in creative and design centric ways. Excellent food for thought with insights to the ways see how alternative mechanisms for bringing future technology into the real world is accomplished.

 

                    

   

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Sunkwork Successes Mean Performance Pre-Prep

Design is Future(s), Thinking is Present(s), and Imagining is not Innovating but Skunkwork(s) is where it all comes together. But how?

With statistically backed data that squarely puts most breakthroughs in the range of " impossible " by any standard stretch of analysis, previous investigations into what makes the most dangerous and powerful shifts in new product development efforts shows that that more than 60% of NPD efforts ( from a large organization format ) achieved usability success. Where this may seem interesting and plausible ( the assumption is once something gets into the hands of large organization they key is to make it work and that's the job of corporations  ) in terms of launch success, this is not the case with innovation hunting from raw internal ideation - blank paper start points.

Further investigations ( and particularly from blank paper to realty efforts ) show numbers where the above were incredibly progressive, vs where almost 90% of raw idea efforts ( from blank paper states ) failed. How can this be the case ? Ideas are not innovations and where organizations exist to use valuable new technology are seldom in a true R&D mode. Organizations that are in a purchase mode ( and why in fact they are able to get to the size that they do ) is where buy is preferred to build. This then pushes " success " numbers to the point where of the 10% making it off the blank paper drawing board means accurate " innovation " numers ended up where 3% ( after the initial 10 % first cut ) typically make it out of the gauntlet to next stages and where then only 2% made it to the 1% of launch phase. From here it is where .3% from a blank paper start saw "success" and usability and where blatant championing efforts are taking place. With a 3000:1 success rate, the ant looking at the mountain top is an apt metaphor to put it mildly, but, that does not however assume that of the 0.3% there aren't ways to blaze the path in specialized skunkwork successes.

Digging into " Individual Differences, Environmental Scanning, Innovation Framing, and Champion Behavior: Key Predictors of Project Performance " we see how commonly held beliefs of championing behaviors, being risk-averse, and other factors are actually the complete opposite of conventional thought, and, where individual locus of control capabilities was one of the strongest factors for success. Thus the " who you know " factor is only one small effort in a well rounded capability of the MacGyver Mindset necessary for what can't be done, to, in fact what can be done and thus pushing innovation possibilities forward. More interestingly we see that ( internal " air support " ) champions associated with advanced R&D efforts are often comfortably working in equivocal ( situations having two or more opposing meanings, or confusing to be understood paths to action ) scenarios and where furthermore these R&D Skunkwork champions assign little value to non-linear outcome fears. In particular ( and which is antithetical to military organizations ) is that threat based innovation efforts are not easily correlated with success, rather, in large complex organization ( but not out in the jungle of the real world ) this highly excludes inclusion with lower level support: no one likes to take a risk, with the " just enough rope " model squarely attached to those that do take the risk. Fear of Failing is a real and non-tacit predictor of what is accepted as something that " can't be done " and thus identifying personnnel roadblocks to radical growth.

In more advanced skunkworks efforts ( R&D hail Mary attempts taking even more risk in terms of initial end use acceptance being readily positive from the get go ) it is ( surprisingly ) those that focus on internal acceptance more than external factors ( even in terms of user value ) that can create a groundswell of positive motion with inside firm / organizational groups thus the belief that X will work, and can work, and, to go on in the face of end users not being prepared for what an innovation is attempting to achieve, and,  is of high importance to breakthrough efforts.

Digging deeper we also see how R&D industry break downs surrounding the innovation space occur: the muddling of NPD v.s. Innovation is identifiable where the idea of " the product had a development cycle of 1.5 to 3yrs " means these are not the numbers of innovation. These are the numbers of new product development. Leveraging this dichotomy we do see where the broad and necessary vision of pre-prep champions ( where and how an X shifts an entire way of doing something ) is articulated as usability across multiple areas ( where the power in innovation lies ) and where by individuals or groups, it is that environmental scanning and interaction that pushes the boundaries of the X that is focused on, thus, offsetting what already exists. Constant environmental scanning, making leaps of possible future uses ( and the people involved in that ) is one of the key factors of skunkworks successes.

Where Skunkworks capabilities have had some of their most potent edge influence, is in the perceived interest of ground swells to later NPD success via environmental scanning ( inward facing efforts to seek input ) where the more casual collaborators feel heard and sought out, the more the notion is that there is validity, regardless of ( and inversely " valuable " to a true innovation success ) when "  document scanning " or looking for patterns in what is produced by those that wish to " be heard " takes place. Where it is often seen that reading documents is percieved as not being an effective mechanism for championing behavior, that is where the full data can lay re: what is possible / what is able to be integrated into organizations. Thus this tacit group think effort becomes a powerful tool, regardless of the negative aspects of such focus and a desire to look ( and directly deal with ) what is happening outside the organism / organization. Increasing the possible confusion in this seemingly counter-intuitive set of results, and from numerous areas of research conducted on this topic, what becomes even more troubling, is that the idea of external threats ( those moving faster, being left behind, etc., ) perpetuates the possible innovation performance pre-prep / idea that a horse ( a truly innovative breakthrough effort ) will be spooked is where, often, many do not want to be involved in such activities. It is therefore the MacGyver mindset that persists in the face of opposition that seems to have the greatest impact in skunkwork success and innovation championing activities.

In conjunction with even more counter intuitive statistical evidence is the idea that external volatility ( the sign of typically, a threat based competition centric landscape ) provides is a high value capability for pronounced radical efforts for innovation usefulness and therefore a capability to find pockets of " unknown " where skunkworks singularities can create radical, re-imaginations of possible new capabilities and especially when combined with Ai, Design efforts, and where, if leveraged correctly can lead to usability not envisioned in previous iterations and even lateral capabilities left unchecked in earlier scannings. In demonstrating impossible convictions in the ( possible ) breakthrough at hand, and thus, a future innovation to be designed and deployed where none had existed before ; finding unseen ways to create previously underrepresented support structures ; and persisting in the face of abject adversity and even absurdity, skunkwork efforts hold radical capabilities that if left undeveloped only further eliminate possibilities for future functionalities.

 

 

                    

   

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Design Meant Discipline – MIT’s Radical Redefinition

Draftperson’s 1st efforts once meant months & then CAD=weeks. Draft to “Doable” has decimated the design world. Sketching & pullable surfaces to grasshopper meant weeks & then Vizcom=seconds. Now what?

It’s no surprise that the radical redefinition of the word “commerce” in the early 21st century was directly influenced by the founding of Amazon ( 1995 ) and only 10yrs years after the massive growth via the general public jumping into the dial-up world when America Online ( 1985 ) was founded bringing 100’s of millions into an electronically connected world. But like the horse & buggy after the advent of wide spread car manufacturing / assembly line model, the landscape of what is now “design” demands it own  definitional reassessment. As detailed in the “Why The Definition Of Design Might Need A Change” we see the simple ways that breakthroughs like T-splines and later Ai visual creation services changed the entire world of what it now means to be a “designer” where rapid fire A-B testing is where “design” is headed.

The radical departure from the laborious task of incredibly detailed specifications ” design ” to be able to visualize and then move through to engineering and manufacturing has taken a light speed jump from it’s origins all the way back to the 1300’s. Even before, design was incredibly detailed ( within the minds of the artisans / masters – who were also, and where they were expected to be construction capable ) and with that came the contractual obligations necessary for delivery. Design ( and detailed design in fact ) defined contracting and where the responsibilities of those that built and manufactured ( within the guild world ) existed. It was this design to detail to delivery where design cut it’s teeth in it’s definitional dimension eg. the mastery and systems of Wedgewood and the products he made – the small atelier to final production model.

Enter mass manufacturing: the incredible complexity of sketching to computer aided design ( CAD ) to computer aided manufacturing ( CAM ) to computer integrated manufacturing ( CIM ) and the incredible levels of knowledge that no one person could possibly have a complete knowledge of. Design then ( possibly ) becomes the need to see the 1st steps without missing the desire to be conversant in all the other later steps. However not slipping, and that the initial phases cannot exist without considerable levels of investigation mean quick and dirty never turned out well.

Today however, this notion is almost erased. Thoughts ( words ) become things ( images ) in a matter of seconds with Ai and sketch to real world imagery capabilities. More, the faster the development of these Ai interfaces become the quicker the design process changes: mini-productions become possible. Skinning ( via 3D printing ) now relatively expensive for small batch production gets cheaper and cheaper by the moment. Where printing one shell for one design required hours, weeks, months of work, with Ai systems that hold assembly pin locations in place while outer shell structures are changed at will means a higher level artisan production becomes the norm. Small scale Ai designed to Ai produced is happening faster than ever before and the long and painful economies of scale to make such small batches possible is now not so small and thus coming to fruition. Inserted into shop on demand systems and auto Amazon delivery and future forward ideas / designs will be in the hands of users faster that we ever expected. The ” on demand ” designer is right around the corner.

This then means that the definition of design returns in one way to the artisan / master designer. The economics of design then become the definition of design once again with the expectation that now, designers and design have an even broader more complicated path: constant evolution and production. Did Ai just make ” designing ” easier? Surely it did. Did Ai just make the entire production process that much more expensive ? Surely it did. Those precious few seconds that designers can now create anything just made design a lot more expensive. Thanks Ai. Now the real fun begins.

 

                    

   

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